by openguardrails · Codex Skill · ★ 342
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OpenThomas An open-source Bayesian trading worker for prediction markets, named after Thomas Bayes. v0 scope: forecast 2026 World Cup match moneyline markets on Polymarket with statistical priors (Elo → Poisson), de-vigged market prices, and a transparent blend — then keep every belief on an append-only ledger and work as a forecaster on a WorkPnP pool. Trade decisions are computed dry-run only. Hard limits in v0 (by design, see §6): No LLM calls. Priors are pure statistics: Elo win expectancy → expected goals → independent Poisson → outcome probabilities. No private keys, no real orders. prints intended trades (edge / fractional Kelly) and stops there. No invented numbers. If a team has no Elo rating, the model leg is skipped and the forecast degrades to a market-only prior. The belief ledger philosophy Most trading bots are black boxes that remember only their PnL. OpenThomas treats the belief as the primary artifact: every forecast it ever emits is appended to as a self-contained JSON record — probability, prior, method, and evidence chain (which Elo ratings, which market prices, which blend λ). Outcomes are back-filled into a separate ; the original belief is never edited.
| Stars | 342 |
| Forks | 50 |
| Language | TypeScript |
| Category | Codex Skill |
| Quality Score | 66.7581529509885/100 |
| Last Updated | 2026-04-22 |
| Created | 2025-10-22 |
| Platforms | node |
| Est. Tokens | ~679k |
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